As gold hovers near the ₹91,000 mark on the MCX, the big question for investors is this: Can Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy push gold to ₹1 lakh per 10 grams in 2025? With global tensions rising and inflation risks looming, analysts are closely watching the yellow metal’s next move.
📈 2025: A Golden Year So Far
Gold has delivered spectacular returns in the first quarter of 2025 — over 18.64% — marking its strongest Q1 rally since 1986. At ₹91,100 per 10 grams on MCX, prices have surged on the back of global instability, aggressive central bank actions, and fresh geopolitical headwinds.
What’s fueling this momentum? One major driver is Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which came into effect on April 3, sparking fears of trade wars and economic slowdown.
🔥 How Trump’s Tariff Bombshell Affects Gold
Trump has imposed a 25% import duty on foreign-made cars and light trucks, sending shockwaves across global markets. His vow to impose reciprocal tariffs on top economies has further stoked uncertainty. This unpredictability has led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold.
According to Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research at Angel One, “Gold has been in a bullish trend as markets brace for tariff conflicts, economic slowdown, and interest rate cuts — all of which boost demand for gold as a hedge.”
Trump’s aggressive stance on Russian oil is adding to market jitters. His proposed secondary tariffs of up to 50% on buyers of Russian crude could amplify inflationary pressures, potentially accelerating gold’s upward movement.
Prithviraj Kothari, MD at RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd (RSBL), points out:
“Trump’s tariff strategy could trigger stagflation and weaken the dollar, both of which favor gold. The downside remains well-supported between $2,700 and $2,800.”
🔮 Could Gold Touch ₹1 Lakh in 2025?
With gold now less than ₹9,000 away from the psychological ₹1 lakh level, analysts are split but optimistic. A modest 10% rise from current prices could push gold to that milestone — but it depends on global cues.
Jateen Trivedi, VP-Research at LKP Securities, notes:
“Gold is trading between ₹88,500 and ₹92,500, with market volatility tied to the ripple effects of U.S. tariffs. Investors are leaning toward gold for safety.”
Apurva Sheth from SAMCO Securities adds that the S&P 500-to-Gold ratio has plunged 23% in March 2025, a sharp signal often associated with upcoming recessions — a trend that historically lifts gold prices.
💡 Should Investors Buy Now or Book Profits?
While some experts predict further upside, others advise caution. Inflation fears and geopolitical risks may push prices higher, but central bank tightening or economic recovery could cap gains.
Mallya emphasizes, “Gold could continue rising as long as Trump’s economic strategies keep global markets uneasy.” But if inflation cools or the Fed stays hawkish, prices might stabilize.
📊 Market Outlook: What Lies Ahead for Gold?
As the dust settles on Trump’s tariffs, gold remains a sensitive indicator of global sentiment. Will it reach ₹1 lakh in 2025? That hinges on how economic and political developments unfold over the coming months. For now, cautious optimism prevails.
📚 Additional Insight: What to Watch Going Forward
- 📌 Keep an eye on U.S. inflation numbers and Fed commentary
- 🌍 Geopolitical tensions (Russia, Middle East) could push gold higher
- 🛢️ Energy prices, particularly oil, are closely linked to inflation and gold demand
- 📉 A falling dollar typically strengthens gold prices
💼 ApxNews Recommendation:
If you’re tracking global commodities, inflation trends, or currency volatility, gold is a key asset to watch in 2025. For daily market updates, expert insights, and investment analysis, stay tuned with ApxNews.in– your window to the world of finance and forex!
