India have traditionally enjoyed the Boxing Day Test match in Australia. In the last decade, India have been unbeaten at the MCG after playing three Test matches. They have drawn once in 2014 and secured dominating wins in 2018 and 2020 at the ‘G’.
India’s sensational performances have come at the G when their backs were against the wall. Back in 2018, India entered the game after being outplayed in Perth. However, the hero of that series, Cheteshwar Pujara, batted for 11 hours to help India rack up 443/7 in 169.4 overs before Jasprit Bumrah delivered a bowling masterclass to guide India to a 137-run victory.
The 2020 Boxing Day Test was even more special. In the previous game, India had been bowled out for 36 runs in their final innings at Adelaide, but stand-in captain Ajinkya Rahane stood up to play a knock for the ages, guiding India to an eight-wicket win.
CHANGE OF BALLS
The losses at the iconic venue hurt Australia’s ego. Multiple changes were made by Cricket Australia (CA) to bolster their traditional strength – fast bowling. The MCG surface was already undergoing a five-year transformation process since 2017, and in 2020, Cricket Australia decided to alter the nature of the red Kookaburra balls.
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The new set of balls featured a more pronounced seam and an extra layer of lacquer. This helped the fast bowlers thrive, as the ball remained fresh for longer periods. The spice was added by the MCG wicket under the watchful eyes of curator Matt Page.
“We sat down seven years ago, after 2017, and discussed where we wanted to go as an organisation and what we wanted to be renowned for – producing Test matches that are going to provide a thrilling contest,” Page said ahead of the Boxing Day Test.
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“It gives the bowlers an opportunity at various points in the game, but it also gives the batters a chance if you play well. We then tried and experimented with our grass lengths, compaction levels, and moisture levels, which probably took us three years to where we wanted to get to. I’d say the last two or three years, we’ve been quite consistent in what we’ve rolled out. We now leave a bit more grass on the pitches than we used to, and it has provided thrilling contests – that’s what we want to do,” he further added.
This directly impacted the amount of runs scored at the MCG.
DIPPING TOTALS AT THE G
The Melbourne and Sydney wickets are traditionally known for aiding batters. This is attested by the top score of 624/8d in 2016, when Australia drubbed Pakistan.
The formula at the MCG was simple: put up a massive total while batting in the first innings – regardless of the toss – and then let the pitch’s inconsistent bounce impart its magic to bowl out the opposition. It essentially became a mental battle between the two sides about who would crumble first under scoreboard pressure.
However, recent records at the MCG have been different. Only once in the last four years has an innings total of 400+ been breached at the venue. In fact, in the last four Tests, teams have struggled to breach the 200-run barrier at the G.
ESPN reports that since 2018-19, the MCG has had the lowest bowling average of all major venues in Australia, at 26.57. Pace has dominated, averaging 24.50.
MORE GRASS ON THE PITCH
The key reason behind the more result-oriented, low-total Tests has been the amount of grass left on the pitches at the G.
For the 2021 Boxing Day Test against England, Page left 10mm of grass on the surface. This resulted in Australia winning inside seven sessions, with Scott Boland starring with his iconic 6/7, as England lost by an innings and 14 runs.
For this game, Page has decided to leave 6mm of grass on the pitch – deemed standard across Australia in Tests against India.
This is akin to what the hosts did against South Africa in 2023. In that game, Cameron Green ran through South Africa on Day 1, picking up 5/27. Later, on the second day of the Test, David Warner scored a double century on a baking hot day, with temperatures soaring around 40 degrees Celsius.
WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?
The South African context is important, as Australian coach Andrew McDonald has said that with temperatures expected to soar above 40 degrees during the Boxing Day Test, the pitch could end up being more batter-friendly.
“This wicket might offer the batters a little bit more in terms of the surface as the game progresses. If we didn’t pick Scotty (Boland) here – and I know I’m not allowed to declare the team because that’s Pat’s (Cummins) job tomorrow – but I don’t think I’m coming to the ground on Boxing Day if Scotty’s not in the XI,” McDonald said.
“We’ve got great depth in our bowling, and (all-rounder) Mitch Marsh is fully fit and able to bowl. But he (Boland) is ready to go, and he’ll play a role in this Test match with the ball more so than in the previous ones,” he added.
RECENT SCORING TREND AT THE MCG
While McDonald feels that batting will be easier as the game goes on, that has not been the case at the MCG in the past few years.
Only once in 2023 has the highest total being scored by the team that batted first in the match.
In fact, in 3 out of the 4 cases, it has been the team that bats second on the MCG surface – on days 2 and 3 – has scored the biggest innings totals in the match.
India’s 326 in 2020, Australia’s 267 in 2021, and once again, Australia’s 575 in 2022 – all of those totals have come with teams batting second on the pitch.
Another interesting trend has been the dwindling overs of spin at the MCG.
2020 is the only MCG Test match where more than 2 spinners operated at the Boxing Day Test. It is also the only Test match in the last 4 years that more than 100 overs of spin was bowled in the Boxing Day Test.
Here are the numbers:
In 2020, Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja and Nathan Lyon bowled a total of 107.5 overs of spin out of 306 overs. That is nearly 35 per cent of the total overs bowled in the Test match.
That number drastically comes down in the next three Test matches at the venue, where:
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In Australia vs England – 29.1 overs of spin are bowled out of 179.
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In Australia vs South Africa – 75.5 overs of spin are bowled out of 281.
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In Australia vs Pakistan – 48.5 overs of spin are bowled out of 321.
This reflects a dwindling proposition for spin at the venue. Where in 2020, more than a third of the overs were of spinners, last year spin only accounted for 15 per cent of the overs.
There might be merit in the argument that both teams should play with a lone spinner. And it rings true, especially for India, since they have more options in hand.
KEY LEARNINGS FOR INDIA
India need to understand that while the MCG has been their stronghold in the past decade, the 2024 Test may not follow the same script. There is more than enough evidence that the track has changed into a seaming one with the batters majorly enjoying on Day 2 and Day 3 of the game.
Australian coach Andrew McDonald’s warning about high temperatures should not hold much water too as Melbourne is known for its drastic weather changes.
Ideally, India should play one spinner and four pacers. With the ground exhibiting variable bounce, there is an argument to play an out-and-out pacer in Prasidh Krishna, who has the ability to exploit the bounce of the track.
If India see Ravindra Jadeja as a pure batter in these conditions, there is an argument for Washington Sundar to play as a lone spinner alongside, Jasprit Bumrah, Akash Deep and Mohammed Siraj.
In case India win the toss, they might opt to bowl first, to ensure that they enjoy the majority of Day 2 and 3 – the flattest conditions in Melbourne. However, in case it is an unnaturally hot day, they might be swayed towards batting first.
All in all, India would need luck to go their way. If Rohit Sharma manages to get it right at the toss, India have the ability to make life hell for Australia at the G.
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